The Yankees had seemed like a sure bet to offer arbitration to Abreu. He's likely to get a long-term deal elsewhere anyway, which would have awarded the Yankees two draft picks had they made the offer. And the worst-case scenario was that he accepted, and came back on a one-year deal worth a couple of million more than the $16 million they paid him in 2008. Chump change for the Yankees, especially for a player they like.

But they decided not to make the offer, because they read the market and came to the conclusion that (a) Abreu might not get a multiyear offer and (b) his market value, in this winter's market, could end up well south of $16 million. Sure, they could have afforded to have him back at that price. It just didn't turn out to be smart business to risk it.

"What that tells you," said an executive with another American League team, who requested anonymity because he was discussing another team's business, "is that even the Yankees are letting the economy factor into their decisions. And that means every team is."

Baseball as an industry was supposed to be impervious to the whims of the sinking national and world economy. A $6.5 billion industry that's about to launch its own TV network and is breaking records annually for broadcast revenue and ticket sales, it was thought to be a juggernaut.

But as Baseball convenes today in Las Vegas for the annual Winter Meetings, it's become clear that the economy is having an impact on the way teams are conducting their business.

It's three weeks into the free-agent signing period and, as of Friday night, the biggest names that had signed new contracts were Ryan Dempster and Edgar Renteria. That's not a slow market - that's a stopped market.

Some teams are being aggressive, sure. The Yankees have a record-setting offer on the table to left-hander CC Sabathia. The Braves have traded for starting pitcher Javier Vazquez and seem ready to sign free-agent pitcher A.J. Burnett. The Giants have signed Renteria and two relievers, and are making noise about jumping in on Sabathia.

But almost everybody is hanging back, and it's become maddening. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has begun flying all over the country to visit various free agents, perhaps just for something to do. Newspapers, Web sites, radio stations and blogs that cover the game are getting bored beyond belief trying to come up with new things to write and discuss. And agents? Well, they're just getting mad.

"They're going to kill the middle class," said one player agent who declined to be identified because he didn't want to anger the teams with which he's negotiating. "Everybody's crying about the economy, but they're using it as cover. The big guys - Sabathia, (Mark) Teixeira - they'll still get their money. But the middle class, the guys on the next rung down, they're going to get nothing."

The players' union has yet to be heard from on this, but if agents and players truly feel as if the teams are acting in concert to depress salaries, they certainly will look into it. The problem is, there's too much hard evidence that, if the economy is being used as cover, it's a darn good one.

In the end, these free agents are going to find homes, because somebody's got to play Baseball in the major leagues next year. And there's a sense that the teams that start driving the market might be the wiser ones.

"The only people who are going to see significant gains from this mess when it's over are those that have the courage to put money into the system while it's down," a different agent (who requested anonymity for the same reason) wrote in an e-mail. "When the recovery does come, if the product on the field is not good, people will not spend the money to come to the park. But the good teams will still draw. And advertising dollars that normally are locked in prior to the season may be there later than normal, but they are only going to come if a club is successful and worth the dollars.

"The clubs that allow the downturn to result in a diminished product are going to get crunched, in my opinion."

It all remains to be seen. All we know for sure is, like everything else that's happening in Baseball this winter, it's going to take a while.